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:: Friday, April 04, 2003 ::


I am against the war in Gulf and have written that here many times over. But have to admit that it is only going to benefit us and not harm. I have tried to list out why a war in the gulf is good for us.

  • A possible end to uncertainty: Anticipation of war has been holding the stock markets and economies of the world. At least when the war ends, people can go on with their business; and life will be much more normal.

  • Oil prices: They are going to fall considerably. And that is going to happen for two reasons. Firstly, oil in Iraq will be free again as the sanctions against selling oil, imposed after the 1991 war will go. Secondly, oil prices have been driven high by the producing countries in anticiation of the war. Along with these, there is also some good news from Nigeria. That leaves Venezuala as the only country where oil extraction is hit by domestic problems, and things are getting better there too. Currently, petrol is sold at almost Rs.40/litre in the city. Expect this to come down to Rs.30 in around 3 months after the end of war. And reduction in oil prices is definitely good for the economy.

  • Growth: There is little doubt that the post war era will be a time of high growth in US. This will be so due to - a) large government spending in defence which will release a lot of money to the market. b) reduced oil prices which means a considerable surge in spending. c) upbeat mood; this is very important. And good US economy definitely means good for India. Especially so for the services industry.

  • The trend in militancy after the Gulf war is debatable. But my feeling is that tougher times will be ahead for militant regimes. That will be one more good news

  • Stock markets can finally breath easy.

  • And one thing good about all the happenings before the war is that the US must have learnt that unilaterism is not as easy as they thought it is. If you had it your way in Afghanisthan, it does not mean it is going to be like that all the time.

But none of this is going to change my opinion. One should leave Iraq for Iraqis. And if not Irqis, it should be only Uniated Nations.

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